Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
